AFL Elo ratings

Elo ratings for the 2026 AFL season, based on my bespoke algorithm using custom k-values and seeded with the last few seasons of data at custom weightings. This is a predictor of real team strength, and may be a more accurate representation than their ladder position. You can read more about Elo ratings here.

Rank Team Elo rating
1 Brisbane Lions 1783
2 Fremantle 1777
3 Sydney 1709
4 Geelong 1692
5 Carlton 1668
6 Hawthorn 1645
7 Adelaide 1642
8 Western Bulldogs 1598
9 Melbourne 1565
10 Collingwood 1536
11 Gold Coast 1417
12 Greater Western Sydney 1396
13 St Kilda 1393
14 North Melbourne 1369
15 Port Adelaide 1349
16 Richmond 1190
17 Essendon 1147
18 West Coast 1115
This data is current as of the end of Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions (round 28) - data is usually updated within an hour of each game ending
If you're using this data to do some Elo-based tipping, here are the quick tips for the remaining games this round:
Brisbane Lions, Brisbane Lions
Note: these tips are based on the Elo ratings and do not take into account any other factors such as injuries, form, etc.
  • Fremantle (49 %) vs Brisbane Lions (51 %) → Tipping Brisbane Lions
  • Brisbane Lions (51 %) vs Fremantle (49 %) → Tipping Brisbane Lions
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