Elo ratings for the 2026 AFL season, based on my bespoke algorithm using custom k-values and seeded with the last few seasons of data at custom weightings.
This is a predictor of real team strength, and may be a more accurate representation than their ladder position.
You can read more about Elo ratings here.
| Rank |
Team |
Elo rating |
|---|
| 1 |
Fremantle |
1760 |
| 2 |
Sydney |
1719 |
| 3 |
Brisbane Lions |
1693 |
| 4 |
Adelaide |
1623 |
| 5 |
Hawthorn |
1601 |
| 6 |
Western Bulldogs |
1591 |
| 7 |
Melbourne |
1584 |
| 8 |
Geelong |
1570 |
| 9 |
Carlton |
1568 |
| 10 |
Collingwood |
1532 |
| 11 |
Greater Western Sydney |
1495 |
| 12 |
St Kilda |
1465 |
| 13 |
Port Adelaide |
1462 |
| 14 |
North Melbourne |
1423 |
| 15 |
Gold Coast |
1380 |
| 16 |
West Coast |
1217 |
| 17 |
Richmond |
1195 |
| 18 |
Essendon |
1114 |
This data is current as of the end of Port Adelaide v North Melbourne (round 17) - data is usually updated within an hour of each game ending
If you're using this data to do some Elo-based tipping, here are the quick tips for the remaining games this round:
Fremantle, Collingwood, St Kilda, Geelong, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Brisbane Lions
Note: these tips are based on the Elo ratings and do not take into account any other factors such as injuries, form, etc.
- Fremantle (56 %) vs Sydney (44 %) → Tipping Fremantle
- Collingwood (65 %) vs North Melbourne (35 %) → Tipping Collingwood
- St Kilda (50 %) vs Port Adelaide (50 %) → Tipping St Kilda
- Greater Western Sydney (39 %) vs Geelong (61 %) → Tipping Geelong
- Carlton (45 %) vs Hawthorn (55 %) → Tipping Hawthorn
- Adelaide (80 %) vs Gold Coast (20 %) → Tipping Adelaide
- Western Bulldogs (90 %) vs West Coast (10 %) → Tipping Western Bulldogs
- Melbourne (90 %) vs Richmond (10 %) → Tipping Melbourne
- Brisbane Lions (97 %) vs Essendon (3 %) → Tipping Brisbane Lions