AFL Elo ratings

Elo ratings for the 2026 AFL season, based on my bespoke algorithm using custom k-values and seeded with the last few seasons of data at custom weightings. This is a predictor of real team strength, and may be a more accurate representation than their ladder position. You can read more about Elo ratings here.

Rank Team Elo rating
1 Hawthorn 1729
2 Fremantle 1659
3 Western Bulldogs 1658
4 Sydney 1644
5 Brisbane Lions 1641
6 Geelong 1618
7 Adelaide 1522
8 Gold Coast 1519
9 Collingwood 1498
10 Greater Western Sydney 1477
11 Melbourne 1472
12 St Kilda 1464
13 North Melbourne 1432
14 Port Adelaide 1377
15 West Coast 1373
16 Essendon 1357
17 Carlton 1329
18 Richmond 1223
This data is current as of the end of Port Adelaide v St Kilda (round 5) - data is usually updated within an hour of each game ending
If you're using this data to do some Elo-based tipping, here are the quick tips for the remaining games this round:
Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Adelaide, North Melbourne, Brisbane Lions, Fremantle
Note: these tips are based on the Elo ratings and do not take into account any other factors such as injuries, form, etc.
  • Carlton (27 %) vs Collingwood (73 %) → Tipping Collingwood
  • Geelong (44 %) vs Western Bulldogs (56 %) → Tipping Western Bulldogs
  • Sydney (72 %) vs Greater Western Sydney (28 %) → Tipping Sydney
  • Gold Coast (72 %) vs Essendon (28 %) → Tipping Gold Coast
  • Hawthorn (88 %) vs Port Adelaide (12 %) → Tipping Hawthorn
  • Adelaide (58 %) vs St Kilda (42 %) → Tipping Adelaide
  • North Melbourne (77 %) vs Richmond (23 %) → Tipping North Melbourne
  • Melbourne (27 %) vs Brisbane Lions (73 %) → Tipping Brisbane Lions
  • West Coast (16 %) vs Fremantle (84 %) → Tipping Fremantle
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