Elo ratings for the 2025 AFL season, based on my bespoke algorithm using custom k-values and seeded with the last few seasons of data at custom weightings.
This is a predictor of real team strength, and may be a more accurate representation than their ladder position.
You can read more about Elo ratings here.
| Rank |
Team |
Elo rating |
|---|
| 1 |
Collingwood |
1797 |
| 2 |
Fremantle |
1673 |
| 3 |
Hawthorn |
1650 |
| 4 |
Geelong |
1647 |
| 5 |
Brisbane Lions |
1624 |
| 6 |
Adelaide |
1611 |
| 7 |
Western Bulldogs |
1603 |
| 8 |
Greater Western Sydney |
1593 |
| 9 |
Gold Coast |
1545 |
| 10 |
Port Adelaide |
1506 |
| 11 |
Sydney |
1467 |
| 12 |
Essendon |
1400 |
| 13 |
North Melbourne |
1394 |
| 14 |
Melbourne |
1377 |
| 15 |
Carlton |
1374 |
| 16 |
St Kilda |
1365 |
| 17 |
Richmond |
1203 |
| 18 |
West Coast |
1161 |
This data is current as of the end of Fremantle v St Kilda (round 16) - data is usually updated within an hour of each game ending
If you're using this data to do some Elo-based tipping, here's the tips for the remaining games this round:
- North Melbourne (23 %) vs Western Bulldogs (77 %) → Tipping Western Bulldogs
- Carlton (8 %) vs Collingwood (92 %) → Tipping Collingwood
- West Coast (8 %) vs Greater Western Sydney (92 %) → Tipping Greater Western Sydney
- Essendon (30 %) vs Gold Coast (70 %) → Tipping Gold Coast
- Geelong (93 %) vs Richmond (7 %) → Tipping Geelong
- Brisbane Lions (66 %) vs Port Adelaide (34 %) → Tipping Brisbane Lions
- St Kilda (16 %) vs Hawthorn (84 %) → Tipping Hawthorn
- Sydney (23 %) vs Fremantle (77 %) → Tipping Fremantle
- Adelaide (79 %) vs Melbourne (21 %) → Tipping Adelaide