Elo ratings for the 2026 AFL season, based on my bespoke algorithm using custom k-values and seeded with the last few seasons of data at custom weightings.
This is a predictor of real team strength, and may be a more accurate representation than their ladder position.
You can read more about Elo ratings here.
| Rank |
Team |
Elo rating |
|---|
| 1 |
Fremantle |
1817 |
| 2 |
Brisbane Lions |
1717 |
| 3 |
Collingwood |
1673 |
| 4 |
Hawthorn |
1660 |
| 5 |
Sydney |
1649 |
| 6 |
Adelaide |
1635 |
| 7 |
Western Bulldogs |
1628 |
| 8 |
Geelong |
1618 |
| 9 |
Melbourne |
1559 |
| 10 |
Carlton |
1510 |
| 11 |
St Kilda |
1500 |
| 12 |
Greater Western Sydney |
1434 |
| 13 |
Port Adelaide |
1388 |
| 14 |
North Melbourne |
1329 |
| 15 |
Gold Coast |
1309 |
| 16 |
West Coast |
1198 |
| 17 |
Essendon |
1196 |
| 18 |
Richmond |
1171 |
This data is current as of the end of North Melbourne v St Kilda (round 20) - data is usually updated within an hour of each game ending
If you're using this data to do some Elo-based tipping, here are the quick tips for the remaining games this round:
Collingwood, Fremantle, Sydney, Hawthorn, Greater Western Sydney, Brisbane Lions, West Coast, Melbourne, Adelaide
Note: these tips are based on the Elo ratings and do not take into account any other factors such as injuries, form, etc.
- Collingwood (58 %) vs Geelong (42 %) → Tipping Collingwood
- Fremantle (75 %) vs Western Bulldogs (25 %) → Tipping Fremantle
- St Kilda (30 %) vs Sydney (70 %) → Tipping Sydney
- Hawthorn (87 %) vs North Melbourne (13 %) → Tipping Hawthorn
- Port Adelaide (43 %) vs Greater Western Sydney (57 %) → Tipping Greater Western Sydney
- Carlton (23 %) vs Brisbane Lions (77 %) → Tipping Brisbane Lions
- Richmond (46 %) vs West Coast (54 %) → Tipping West Coast
- Gold Coast (19 %) vs Melbourne (81 %) → Tipping Melbourne
- Essendon (7 %) vs Adelaide (93 %) → Tipping Adelaide