Elo ratings for the 2026 AFL season, based on my bespoke algorithm using custom k-values and seeded with the last few seasons of data at custom weightings.
This is a predictor of real team strength, and may be a more accurate representation than their ladder position.
You can read more about Elo ratings here.
| Rank |
Team |
Elo rating |
|---|
| 1 |
Fremantle |
1845 |
| 2 |
Sydney |
1748 |
| 3 |
Adelaide |
1671 |
| 4 |
Hawthorn |
1623 |
| 5 |
Geelong |
1616 |
| 6 |
Western Bulldogs |
1601 |
| 7 |
Brisbane Lions |
1574 |
| 8 |
Melbourne |
1545 |
| 9 |
Carlton |
1495 |
| 10 |
St Kilda |
1485 |
| 11 |
Greater Western Sydney |
1470 |
| 12 |
Gold Coast |
1456 |
| 13 |
North Melbourne |
1448 |
| 14 |
Collingwood |
1436 |
| 15 |
Port Adelaide |
1346 |
| 16 |
Richmond |
1250 |
| 17 |
West Coast |
1242 |
| 18 |
Essendon |
1140 |
This data is current as of the end of Fremantle v Geelong (round 15) - data is usually updated within an hour of each game ending
If you're using this data to do some Elo-based tipping, here are the quick tips for the remaining games this round:
Hawthorn, Adelaide, Carlton, Collingwood, North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs
Note: these tips are based on the Elo ratings and do not take into account any other factors such as injuries, form, etc.
- Gold Coast (28 %) vs Hawthorn (72 %) → Tipping Hawthorn
- Adelaide (67 %) vs Melbourne (33 %) → Tipping Adelaide
- Greater Western Sydney (46 %) vs Carlton (54 %) → Tipping Carlton
- Collingwood (63 %) vs Port Adelaide (37 %) → Tipping Collingwood
- Richmond (24 %) vs North Melbourne (76 %) → Tipping North Melbourne
- St Kilda (34 %) vs Western Bulldogs (66 %) → Tipping Western Bulldogs