AFL Elo ratings

Elo ratings for the 2025 AFL season, based on my bespoke algorithm using custom k-values and seeded with the last few seasons of data at custom weightings. This is a predictor of real team strength, and may be a more accurate representation than their ladder position. You can read more about Elo ratings here.

Rank Team Elo rating
1 Adelaide 1782
2 Fremantle 1719
3 Collingwood 1677
4 Gold Coast 1673
5 Brisbane Lions 1646
6 Greater Western Sydney 1638
7 Western Bulldogs 1629
8 Geelong 1628
9 Hawthorn 1623
10 Sydney 1549
11 Port Adelaide 1436
12 Carlton 1388
13 St Kilda 1363
14 Melbourne 1294
15 Richmond 1290
16 North Melbourne 1286
17 Essendon 1266
18 West Coast 1104
This data is current as of the end of Adelaide v Hawthorn (round 21) - data is usually updated within an hour of each game ending
If you're using this data to do some Elo-based tipping, here's the tips for the remaining games this round:
  • Melbourne (75 %) vs West Coast (25 %) → Tipping Melbourne
  • Gold Coast (90 %) vs Richmond (10 %) → Tipping Gold Coast
  • Sydney (84 %) vs Essendon (16 %) → Tipping Sydney
  • Collingwood (54 %) vs Brisbane Lions (46 %) → Tipping Collingwood
  • St Kilda (61 %) vs North Melbourne (39 %) → Tipping St Kilda
  • Geelong (75 %) vs Port Adelaide (25 %) → Tipping Geelong
  • Fremantle (87 %) vs Carlton (13 %) → Tipping Fremantle
An unhandled error has occurred. Reload 🗙