AFL Elo ratings

Elo ratings for the 2025 AFL season, based on my bespoke algorithm using custom k-values and seeded with the last few seasons of data at custom weightings. This is a predictor of real team strength, and may be a more accurate representation than their ladder position. You can read more about Elo ratings here.

Rank Team Elo rating
1 Collingwood 1794
2 Fremantle 1656
3 Geelong 1647
4 Hawthorn 1627
5 Brisbane Lions 1624
6 Adelaide 1601
7 Greater Western Sydney 1593
8 Western Bulldogs 1560
9 Sydney 1510
10 Gold Coast 1509
11 Port Adelaide 1506
12 North Melbourne 1417
13 Melbourne 1414
14 Essendon 1400
15 St Kilda 1383
16 Carlton 1374
17 Richmond 1212
18 West Coast 1164
This data is current as of the end of Port Adelaide v Carlton (round 16) - data is usually updated within an hour of each game ending
If you're using this data to do some Elo-based tipping, here's the tips for the remaining games this round:
  • Sydney (43 %) vs Western Bulldogs (57 %) → Tipping Western Bulldogs
  • Gold Coast (63 %) vs Melbourne (37 %) → Tipping Gold Coast
  • Hawthorn (77 %) vs North Melbourne (23 %) → Tipping Hawthorn
  • Collingwood (97 %) vs West Coast (3 %) → Tipping Collingwood
  • Richmond (10 %) vs Adelaide (90 %) → Tipping Adelaide
  • Fremantle (83 %) vs St Kilda (17 %) → Tipping Fremantle
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