Elo ratings for the 2026 AFL season, based on my bespoke algorithm using custom k-values and seeded with the last few seasons of data at custom weightings.
This is a predictor of real team strength, and may be a more accurate representation than their ladder position.
You can read more about Elo ratings here.
| Rank |
Team |
Elo rating |
|---|
| 1 |
Fremantle |
1791 |
| 2 |
Sydney |
1714 |
| 3 |
Hawthorn |
1686 |
| 4 |
Geelong |
1677 |
| 5 |
Adelaide |
1547 |
| 6 |
Western Bulldogs |
1546 |
| 7 |
Gold Coast |
1545 |
| 8 |
Melbourne |
1545 |
| 9 |
Collingwood |
1535 |
| 10 |
Brisbane Lions |
1520 |
| 11 |
Carlton |
1481 |
| 12 |
Greater Western Sydney |
1476 |
| 13 |
St Kilda |
1435 |
| 14 |
North Melbourne |
1428 |
| 15 |
Port Adelaide |
1303 |
| 16 |
West Coast |
1288 |
| 17 |
Richmond |
1273 |
| 18 |
Essendon |
1201 |
This data is current as of the end of Carlton v Geelong (round 12) - data is usually updated within an hour of each game ending
If you're using this data to do some Elo-based tipping, here are the quick tips for the remaining games this round:
Sydney, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, West Coast
Note: these tips are based on the Elo ratings and do not take into account any other factors such as injuries, form, etc.
- Sydney (93 %) vs Richmond (7 %) → Tipping Sydney
- Brisbane Lions (17 %) vs Fremantle (83 %) → Tipping Fremantle
- Western Bulldogs (52 %) vs Collingwood (48 %) → Tipping Western Bulldogs
- Melbourne (60 %) vs Greater Western Sydney (40 %) → Tipping Melbourne
- West Coast (62 %) vs Essendon (38 %) → Tipping West Coast