AFL Elo ratings

Elo ratings for the 2025 AFL season, based on my bespoke algorithm using custom k-values and seeded with the last few seasons of data at custom weightings. This is a predictor of real team strength, and may be a more accurate representation than their ladder position. You can read more about Elo ratings here.

Rank Team Elo rating
1 Geelong 1767
2 Hawthorn 1753
3 Brisbane Lions 1733
4 Adelaide 1677
5 Greater Western Sydney 1661
6 Fremantle 1654
7 Collingwood 1649
8 Western Bulldogs 1602
9 Gold Coast 1595
10 Sydney 1593
11 St Kilda 1440
12 Carlton 1440
13 Port Adelaide 1427
14 North Melbourne 1284
15 Melbourne 1275
16 Richmond 1190
17 Essendon 1181
18 West Coast 1069
This data is current as of the end of Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast (round 26) - data is usually updated within an hour of each game ending
If you're using this data to do some Elo-based tipping, here's the tips for the remaining games this round:
  • Collingwood (35 %) vs Hawthorn (65 %) → Tipping Hawthorn
  • Geelong (55 %) vs Brisbane Lions (45 %) → Tipping Geelong
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