Elo ratings for the 2026 AFL season, based on my bespoke algorithm using custom k-values and seeded with the last few seasons of data at custom weightings.
This is a predictor of real team strength, and may be a more accurate representation than their ladder position.
You can read more about Elo ratings here.
| Rank |
Team |
Elo rating |
|---|
| 1 |
Western Bulldogs |
1706 |
| 2 |
Gold Coast |
1635 |
| 3 |
Hawthorn |
1619 |
| 4 |
Geelong |
1601 |
| 5 |
Adelaide |
1580 |
| 6 |
Sydney |
1567 |
| 7 |
Fremantle |
1559 |
| 8 |
Collingwood |
1548 |
| 9 |
Brisbane Lions |
1515 |
| 10 |
Greater Western Sydney |
1496 |
| 11 |
Carlton |
1466 |
| 12 |
Port Adelaide |
1459 |
| 13 |
St Kilda |
1452 |
| 14 |
Melbourne |
1429 |
| 15 |
North Melbourne |
1369 |
| 16 |
West Coast |
1365 |
| 17 |
Essendon |
1326 |
| 18 |
Richmond |
1298 |
This data is current as of the end of West Coast v North Melbourne (round 2) - data is usually updated within an hour of each game ending
If you're using this data to do some Elo-based tipping, here are the quick tips for the remaining games this round:
Geelong, Collingwood, Brisbane Lions, Fremantle, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Carlton
Note: these tips are based on the Elo ratings and do not take into account any other factors such as injuries, form, etc.
- Geelong (53 %) vs Adelaide (47 %) → Tipping Geelong
- Collingwood (57 %) vs Greater Western Sydney (43 %) → Tipping Collingwood
- St Kilda (41 %) vs Brisbane Lions (59 %) → Tipping Brisbane Lions
- Fremantle (82 %) vs Richmond (18 %) → Tipping Fremantle
- Essendon (44 %) vs North Melbourne (56 %) → Tipping North Melbourne
- Port Adelaide (63 %) vs West Coast (37 %) → Tipping Port Adelaide
- Carlton (55 %) vs Melbourne (45 %) → Tipping Carlton